2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: What to Expect

As we enter the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, coastal communities, emergency responders and meteorologists are preparing for what could be an eventful period this year. The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1, which aligns with the timing of water temperatures warming to around 80 degrees and ends November 30, after the waters have cooled again.  

Understanding the potential trends and impacts of this season is crucial for effective preparedness and response. In this blog, we’ll explore the factors influencing the 2024 hurricane season, the predictions from leading meteorological organizations, and what residents and property owners in hurricane-prone areas should do to stay safe. 

Predictions for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA have released their initial predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Here’s what they expect: 

• Number of Named Storms: 17-25 
• Number of Hurricanes: 8-13 
• Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 4-7 

These predictions suggest an above-average season. According to a news statement released by the NOAA, “The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.”   

At the news conference announcing NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season on May 23, 2024, Ken Graham, head of The National Weather Service stated, “Those numbers... that's the highest forecast that we've had. So, all the ingredients are definitely in place to have an active season.”

Potential Impacts and Areas of Concern 

Of course, certain regions such as The Gulf Coast, Southeast United States and Caribbean are perennial hotspots for hurricane activity, and they are expected to face higher risks this hurricane season. However, other inland regions shouldn’t be so quick to write this off as a coastal problem.  

These hurricane-driven storm systems don’t just affect coastal regions. As they move inland, they are responsible for torrential rainfalls resulting in localized flooding, heavy winds, along with the potential for tornados which all have significant impacts on structures and human life.  

“We looked at 2013 to 2023 to really evaluate some of the numbers and where we see the most fatalities,” noted The National Weather Service’s Graham. “Ninety percent of fatalities result from water. Most of those are fresh water from heavy rainfall (57%). It's preventable.”  

The numbers of direct fatalities from storms and indirect fatalities are almost equal. Since 2013, there have been 455 deaths related directly to storms involving rain, storm surge and wind. The number of indirect deaths has been recorded as 418, and most of that comes from clean-up-related fatalities which can be caused by power loss, overexertion during cleanup, generator accidents, and water-borne diseases spread by flooding. 

 “We had an 18-foot storm surge in Louisiana. We lost more people from improper use of generators than we did storm surge. Please help us remind everybody to use generators correctly outdoors, not indoors, away from open windows ... we lose a lot of lives from these things.” Graham added. 

Preparedness Tips for the 2024 Hurricane Season 

Preparation is key to minimizing the impacts of hurricanes. Here are some essential tips for those in hurricane-prone areas: 

1. Create an Emergency Plan: 

Develop a plan that includes evacuation routes, communication strategies, and emergency contacts. Make sure all family members and/or employees are familiar with the plan. 

2. Build an Emergency Kit: 

Your kit should include essentials such as water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, and important documents. 

3. Secure Your Property 

Take steps to protect your home and commercial property. 

• Install storm shutters on windows and glass doors to protect against flying debris.  
• Secure loose outdoor items such as outdoor furniture, signs and planters.  
• Reinforce doors and garages with heavy-duty locks and deadbolts to prevent them from being blown open.  
• Trim trees and bushes to prevent branches from breaking and causing damage.  
• Seal any gaps, cracks, or openings in the building exterior to prevent water intrusion. 

For additional tips on securing your home or commercial property, watch a video from the NWS. 

4. Stay Informed 

Keep an eye on weather updates from reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and local news stations. Sign up for emergency alerts to receive real-time information from your favorite weather apps or from organizations such as FEMA. Another thing to remember with the conditions being predicted, these storms do not take long to become a catastrophic event.   

“You look at a season like this where you could see strong storms with this forecast. The last 100 years, every single one of these big storms were a tropical storm three days prior, and several didn't even exist three days prior,” Graham explained.  

The storm that would later become Hurricane Katrina surfaced on August 23, 2005, as a tropical depression over the Bahamas. Two days later, it was a Category 1 Hurricane when it made landfall on the tip of Florida. By August 29, less than a week after it formed as a tropical depression, it devastated Louisiana as a Category 3 storm fed by warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane to hit the U.S. to date resulting in nearly $106 billion of damage.   

For additional information on staying informed and understanding the forecasts, view this video from the NWS.  

5. Review Insurance Policies: 

Ensure your home or commercial property is adequately insured against hurricane damage. Understand the specifics of your coverage and make any necessary adjustments. 

The 2024 hurricane season presents a mix of factors that could influence storm activity and intensity. By staying informed and prepared, residents and property owners in hurricane-prone areas can better protect themselves and their properties from potential impacts. Stay safe, stay vigilant, and let’s weather this season together. 

Post-Hurricane Recovery 

Natural disasters are inevitable—especially in certain areas of the country. But by being proactive and having plans in place for what to do before and after a disaster strikes, you can minimize the financial and emotional impact of these weather events.  

If you find yourself on the recovery side of a disaster, you’re not alone and MCS has the expertise to help guide you through the process. Disaster inspections provide a detailed assessment of the extent and nature of damage to structures and infrastructure, helping determine what repairs are needed, and ensure the safety of occupants before they re-enter damaged structures. 

Contact MCS to find out how our disaster preparedness and recovery services can help secure your property.